Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 201.713659 239.097911 283.475619 340.606814 413.033164 502.919858 6.247147e+02
2025-10-19 158.966689 204.682066 265.138591 352.955594 480.780284 665.982364 9.664512e+02
2025-10-26 133.189023 181.626050 250.777993 360.606753 538.549901 831.200560 1.387112e+03
2025-11-02 114.686258 163.335636 236.999784 362.586080 584.831997 992.515103 1.887096e+03
2025-11-09 99.263304 146.180978 220.561066 354.768709 610.214119 1124.794785 2.411353e+03
2025-11-16 87.362225 132.286892 206.310536 346.539818 631.131558 1255.483488 3.024247e+03
2025-11-23 77.763854 120.563469 193.451993 337.509321 647.059708 1381.511985 3.728179e+03
2025-11-30 74.857163 119.505784 198.754051 364.093088 746.965113 1757.130719 5.592174e+03
2025-12-07 69.479758 113.358324 193.690838 368.362505 797.229369 2030.524663 7.463741e+03
2025-12-14 65.447149 109.062865 191.379969 377.897955 864.018799 2394.796618 1.036031e+04
2025-12-21 60.838071 103.127562 184.938275 376.715755 902.293023 2693.088929 1.355960e+04
2025-12-28 59.570414 103.326723 190.861495 405.897495 1038.470746 3457.140299 2.215221e+04
2026-01-04 57.664766 102.212030 194.216241 430.716277 1177.170287 4394.080912 3.719059e+04
2026-01-11 55.344082 99.999765 194.892182 449.072808 1305.708776 5453.528722 6.252378e+04
2026-01-18 52.702155 96.813149 192.892256 459.755404 1413.886925 6568.171182 1.037549e+05
2026-01-25 49.830684 92.824562 188.456330 462.498089 1494.518581 7655.780124 1.680657e+05
2026-02-01 46.490566 87.498059 180.140767 451.894465 1516.585249 8393.401516 2.458914e+05
2026-02-08 43.458576 82.561825 172.168070 440.744930 1532.673976 9140.840291 3.641590e+05
2026-02-15 40.671338 77.915339 164.354965 428.532534 1539.558511 9852.254348 5.407153e+05
2026-02-22 40.436683 78.928095 170.859723 464.557563 1800.918432 13690.780941 1.944826e+06
2026-03-01 38.814058 76.627623 168.538714 470.363784 1914.206480 16342.536381 5.376751e+06
2026-03-08 37.601776 75.162319 168.233880 483.351580 2078.706630 20375.608578 2.645143e+07
2026-03-15 35.910004 72.422448 164.160149 481.739869 2158.505836 23553.513905 1.544833e+08